Arbroath vs Livingston
Championship, Scotland · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
DLLWL
LWDWLThe score model made a Livingston win the most likely outcome at 49%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arbroath 0.78 – 1.40 Livingston.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath win | 18.8% | 27.4% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.9% | 27.3% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Livingston win | 49.3% | 45.3% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.2% | 50.9% | -13.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.7% | 30.4% | -12.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.1% | 55.0% | -11.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.7% | 34.9% | -10.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arbroath 35.3 / Livingston 14.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.