Arbroath vs Livingston
Championship, Scotland · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
LDLDW
WLWLWThe score model makes an Livingston win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 82.4% vs 74.5% implied (+8.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arbroath 0.78 – 1.40 Livingston.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath win | 18.6% | 26.2% | -7.7% |
| Draw | 32.1% | 28.3% | +3.8% |
| Livingston win | 49.4% | 45.4% | +3.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.0% | 44.7% | -7.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.6% | 25.5% | -8.0% |
| Both teams to score | 43.0% | 49.7% | -6.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.4% | 30.6% | -6.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arbroath 35.7 / Livingston 14.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.