Dunfermline vs Raith
Championship, Scotland · 2026-08-28 · 20:30 CET
DLDDL
LWDWWThe score model makes a Dunfermline win the most likely outcome at 36%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 59.2% vs 51.1% implied (+8.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dunfermline 1.21 – 1.11 Raith.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dunfermline win | 35.9% | 36.6% | -0.6% |
| Draw | 33.1% | 27.1% | +6.0% |
| Raith win | 30.9% | 36.3% | -5.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.8% | 48.9% | -8.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.3% | 28.5% | -8.2% |
| Both teams to score | 49.4% | 54.3% | -4.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.7% | 33.2% | -4.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dunfermline 46.4 / Raith 45.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.