Al Hilal vs Al Ittihad
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-10-10 · 20:00 CET
WWLWW
WWWWLThe score model made an Al Hilal win the most likely outcome at 63%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Hilal 2.36 – 1.16 Al Ittihad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Hilal win | 63.1% | 72.9% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.4% | 15.8% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Al Ittihad win | 16.4% | 11.2% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.4% | 71.1% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.9% | 50.7% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | 58.0% | +5.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 52.0% | 49.2% | +2.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Hilal 46.2 / Al Ittihad 45.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.