Al Hazem vs Neom SC
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-10-10 · 15:50 CET
DWLDL
LWWWDThe score model made a Neom SC win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Hazem 0.99 – 1.46 Neom SC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Hazem win | 24.3% | 18.8% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.2% | 23.5% | +5.7% | ✓ |
| Neom SC win | 46.5% | 57.7% | -11.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.5% | 52.7% | -8.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.3% | 31.3% | -8.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 51.9% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.4% | 36.2% | -7.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Hazem 33.4 / Neom SC 28.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.