Al Kholood vs Al Qadisiya
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-10-09 · 15:50 CET
DWDWL
WWDLWThe score model made an Al Qadisiya win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 0:5 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Kholood 0.95 – 1.75 Al Qadisiya.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Kholood win | 19.0% | 15.6% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.0% | 20.3% | +5.7% | ✗ |
| Al Qadisiya win | 55.0% | 64.1% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | 61.2% | -10.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.5% | 40.2% | -11.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% | 55.9% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.7% | 42.3% | -5.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Kholood 38.4 / Al Qadisiya 14.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.