Al Fateh vs Al Ahli SC
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-10-09 · 16:55 CET
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LLWLWThe score model makes an Al Ahli SC win the most likely outcome at 64%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 64.4% vs 52.5% implied (+11.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Fateh 0.90 – 2.11 Al Ahli SC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Fateh win | 14.1% | 15.5% | -1.4% |
| Draw | 21.6% | 18.8% | +2.9% |
| Al Ahli SC win | 64.3% | 65.8% | -1.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | 67.8% | -9.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.6% | 47.5% | -11.9% |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | 61.0% | -7.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.4% | 46.5% | -7.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Fateh 45.8 / Al Ahli SC 43.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.