Al Bukiryah vs Al Zulfi
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-10-13 · 17:15 CET
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DDDDWThe score model makes an Al Zulfi win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Bukiryah 0.92 – 1.11 Al Zulfi.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Bukiryah win | 28.7% | — | — |
| Draw | 32.7% | — | — |
| Al Zulfi win | 38.7% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.1% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.8% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 41.4% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Bukiryah 42.1 / Al Zulfi 37 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.