Al Wehda vs Al Taee
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-10-12 · 19:00 CET
DDWDW
WLDWLThe score model made an Al Wehda win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 6:1 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Wehda 1.67 – 1.47 Al Taee.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Wehda win | 41.5% | 53.0% | -11.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 23.9% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Al Taee win | 33.2% | 23.1% | +10.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% | 60.1% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.3% | 38.9% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 63.3% | 59.7% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.6% | 41.4% | -10.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Wehda 26.2 / Al Taee 36.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.