Hajer vs Al Anwar
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-02 · 17:40 CET
WDDLD
LDWWDThe score model made an Al Anwar win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hajer 1.26 – 1.71 Al Anwar.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hajer win | 27.4% | 35.1% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 28.9% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Al Anwar win | 47.5% | 36.0% | +11.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.0% | 45.7% | +11.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.6% | 25.9% | +8.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.3% | 51.8% | +7.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.4% | 32.3% | +10.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hajer 10.1 / Al Anwar 24.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.