Jeddah vs Al Najma
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-27 · 18:20 CET
DDLLL
LDDDDThe score model made an Al Najma win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jeddah 1.01 – 1.42 Al Najma.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeddah win | 26.2% | 20.9% | +5.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 27.5% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Al Najma win | 45.5% | 51.6% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 44.4% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.8% | 24.6% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.0% | 48.0% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.8% | 30.5% | -3.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jeddah 43 / Al Najma 17.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.