Orenburg vs Dynamo Makhachkala
Premier League, Russia · 2026-10-10 · 12:00 CET
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LLWLLThe score model makes an Orenburg win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 83.7% vs 68.6% implied (+15.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Orenburg 1.11 – 0.99 Dynamo Makhachkala.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orenburg win | 36.6% | 41.4% | -4.8% |
| Draw | 32.9% | 28.7% | +4.3% |
| Dynamo Makhachkala win | 30.4% | 29.9% | +0.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.9% | 46.3% | -11.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.0% | 26.4% | -10.3% |
| Both teams to score | 43.5% | 51.9% | -8.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 52.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 16.4% | 31.4% | -15.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Orenburg 41.3 / Dynamo Makhachkala 35.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.