Krasnodar vs Zenit
Premier League, Russia · 2026-10-10 · 18:30 CET
DDDDL
LLWWWThe score model made a Krasnodar win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 2:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Krasnodar 1.22 – 1.12 Zenit.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krasnodar win | 37.1% | 33.1% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.8% | 28.9% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Zenit win | 32.1% | 38.0% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.4% | 46.6% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.8% | 26.8% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 52.4% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.9% | 31.4% | -0.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Krasnodar 40.9 / Zenit 40.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.