FK Rostov vs Akron Togliatti
Premier League, Russia · 2026-10-09 · 18:30 CET
WDWWD
LDWLLThe score model made an FK Rostov win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FK Rostov 1.68 – 1.14 Akron Togliatti.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Rostov win | 48.6% | 50.9% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 27.0% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Akron Togliatti win | 24.7% | 22.2% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.5% | 46.6% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.3% | 26.6% | +4.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | 48.1% | +8.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.4% | 31.1% | +6.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FK Rostov 41 / Akron Togliatti 36.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FK Rostov vs Akron Togliatti in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.