Rubin Kazan vs Dynamo Makhachkala
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-30 · 19:00 CET
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LLWLLThe score model made a Rubin Kazan win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 30%). It finished 3:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rubin Kazan 1.14 – 0.77 Dynamo Makhachkala.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin Kazan win | 43.0% | 39.8% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 33.4% | 31.2% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Dynamo Makhachkala win | 23.6% | 29.0% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29.9% | 36.6% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.7% | 18.5% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 37.8% | 44.4% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.8% | 25.5% | -0.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rubin Kazan 37.5 / Dynamo Makhachkala 34.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.