Lokomotiv Moscow vs Dynamo Moscow
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-29 · 19:00 CET
LLWLD
WWWWWThe score model made a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lokomotiv Moscow 1.82 – 1.57 Dynamo Moscow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Moscow win | 42.9% | 29.0% | +13.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 25.9% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Dynamo Moscow win | 32.5% | 45.2% | -12.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.8% | 58.5% | +7.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.9% | 37.8% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 67.4% | 61.0% | +6.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.8% | 39.6% | +3.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lokomotiv Moscow 39.5 / Dynamo Moscow 39.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.