Fakel Voronezh vs Zenit
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-29 · 14:00 CET
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WLLWWThe score model made a Zenit win the most likely outcome at 63%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 31%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fakel Voronezh 0.45 – 1.51 Zenit.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel Voronezh win | 9.6% | 15.6% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 24.3% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Zenit win | 62.9% | 60.1% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.2% | 45.2% | -14.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.5% | 24.9% | -11.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 29.1% | 44.4% | -15.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.6% | 30.4% | -6.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fakel Voronezh 20.9 / Zenit 39.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.