Akhmat Grozny vs Krylya Sovetov
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-29 · 19:00 CET
WDDWL
DDDWDThe score model made an Akhmat Grozny win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 3:3 (HT 2:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Akhmat Grozny 1.55 – 1.08 Krylya Sovetov.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akhmat Grozny win | 46.8% | 51.6% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.1% | 26.0% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| Krylya Sovetov win | 25.1% | 22.4% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 50.1% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.0% | 29.5% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | 52.4% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.3% | 33.9% | +3.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Akhmat Grozny 39.6 / Krylya Sovetov 39.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.