Akron Togliatti vs CSKA Moscow
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-28 · 17:00 CET
DDDDW
DWWDWThe score model made a CSKA Moscow win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Akron Togliatti 1.04 – 1.80 CSKA Moscow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron Togliatti win | 20.5% | 22.1% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 24.4% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| CSKA Moscow win | 54.0% | 53.5% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | 57.4% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.8% | 35.8% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | 59.0% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.5% | 38.6% | +4.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Akron Togliatti 34.6 / CSKA Moscow 39.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.