Spartak Moscow vs Zenit
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-23 · 19:00 CET
DWWLW
WWWLWThe score model makes an Zenit win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Zenit win — 45.1% vs 37.6% implied (+7.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Spartak Moscow 0.99 – 1.41 Zenit.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Moscow win | 25.1% | 34.3% | -9.1% |
| Draw | 29.8% | 28.2% | +1.6% |
| Zenit win | 45.1% | 37.6% | +7.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.9% | 48.4% | -5.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.1% | 27.7% | -5.7% |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | 53.9% | -5.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.4% | 32.5% | +3.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Spartak Moscow 39.3 / Zenit 39.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.