Dynamo Makhachkala vs Krasnodar
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-23 · 16:30 CET
WWWLW
WWWWWThe score model makes an Krasnodar win the most likely outcome at 54%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Krasnodar win — 54.1% vs 48.3% implied (+5.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dynamo Makhachkala 0.79 – 1.55 Krasnodar.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Makhachkala win | 17.7% | 22.5% | -4.8% |
| Draw | 28.1% | 29.1% | -1.0% |
| Krasnodar win | 54.1% | 48.3% | +5.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.6% | 44.1% | -2.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.0% | 24.7% | -3.8% |
| Both teams to score | 44.4% | 48.2% | -3.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 29.4% | -0.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dynamo Makhachkala 34.1 / Krasnodar 39.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.