Akron Togliatti vs Krylya Sovetov
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-23 · 12:00 CET
DDDDW
DDDWDThe score model made an Akron Togliatti win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Akron Togliatti 1.66 – 1.43 Krylya Sovetov.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron Togliatti win | 41.9% | 33.0% | +8.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 28.0% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Krylya Sovetov win | 32.0% | 39.0% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.6% | 53.8% | +5.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.2% | 33.1% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | 58.3% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.0% | 35.7% | +9.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Akron Togliatti 33.9 / Krylya Sovetov 39.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.