Fakel Voronezh vs Orenburg
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-22 · 14:30 CET
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DDDLDThe score model made a draw the most likely outcome at 35%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 30%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fakel Voronezh 0.96 – 0.95 Orenburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel Voronezh win | 32.9% | 38.1% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 34.8% | 29.7% | +5.1% | ✓ |
| Orenburg win | 32.3% | 32.2% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29.7% | 43.0% | -13.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.6% | 23.2% | -10.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 39.2% | 49.5% | -10.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 51.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 15.4% | 29.1% | -13.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fakel Voronezh 20.2 / Orenburg 39.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.