CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-22 · 19:15 CET
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LDLDDThe score model makes a CSKA Moscow win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 71.0% vs 65.0% implied (+6.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CSKA Moscow 1.60 – 1.12 Lokomotiv Moscow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Moscow win | 47.3% | 47.8% | -0.5% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 26.1% | +1.4% |
| Lokomotiv Moscow win | 25.2% | 26.1% | -0.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.1% | 55.9% | -4.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.0% | 35.0% | -6.0% |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | 58.6% | -3.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.0% | 37.6% | -2.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CSKA Moscow 39.4 / Lokomotiv Moscow 39.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.