CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-22 · 19:15 CET
DWWDW
LLWLDThe score model made a CSKA Moscow win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CSKA Moscow 1.60 – 1.11 Lokomotiv Moscow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Moscow win | 47.2% | 48.6% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 26.2% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Lokomotiv Moscow win | 25.3% | 25.2% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 55.9% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.9% | 34.9% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | 58.3% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.9% | 37.3% | -2.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CSKA Moscow 39.1 / Lokomotiv Moscow 39.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.