Akhmat Grozny vs FK Rostov
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-22 · 17:00 CET
WDDWL
LWWLLThe score model made an Akhmat Grozny win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 4:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Akhmat Grozny 1.12 – 0.99 FK Rostov.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akhmat Grozny win | 37.0% | 38.1% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 32.7% | 30.6% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| FK Rostov win | 30.3% | 31.2% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.5% | 42.0% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.5% | 22.5% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.0% | 49.1% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 28.6% | +0.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Akhmat Grozny 39.2 / FK Rostov 39.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.