Zenit vs Dynamo Moscow
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-16 · 13:30 CET
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WWWWWThe score model made a Zenit win the most likely outcome at 63%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zenit 2.00 – 0.86 Dynamo Moscow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zenit win | 62.8% | 60.2% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.9% | 22.7% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Dynamo Moscow win | 14.3% | 17.1% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | 54.8% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.3% | 33.4% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | 52.2% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.3% | 36.4% | -1.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zenit 38.7 / Dynamo Moscow 38.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.