Zenit vs Dynamo Moscow
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-16 · 13:30 CET
WWWWL
WWDLWThe score model makes a Zenit win the most likely outcome at 63%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Zenit win — 62.9% vs 57.4% implied (+5.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zenit 2.00 – 0.86 Dynamo Moscow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zenit win | 62.9% | 57.4% | +5.5% |
| Draw | 22.8% | 23.7% | -1.0% |
| Dynamo Moscow win | 14.3% | 18.8% | -4.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | 54.0% | +0.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.3% | 32.5% | -0.2% |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 53.0% | -1.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.4% | 35.7% | -0.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zenit 38.8 / Dynamo Moscow 38.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.