Krylya Sovetov vs Dynamo Makhachkala
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-16 · 16:00 CET
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LLWLLThe score model made a Krylya Sovetov win the most likely outcome at 41%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 1:4 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Krylya Sovetov 1.22 – 0.96 Dynamo Makhachkala.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krylya Sovetov win | 40.5% | 38.8% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.9% | 30.4% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Dynamo Makhachkala win | 27.6% | 30.8% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.0% | 42.8% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.5% | 23.2% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.8% | 50.1% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 29.0% | -0.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Krylya Sovetov 38.7 / Dynamo Makhachkala 33.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.