Krylya Sovetov vs Dynamo Makhachkala
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-16 · 16:00 CET
LWDDL
WWWWLThe score model makes a Krylya Sovetov win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 82.6% vs 77.2% implied (+5.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Krylya Sovetov 1.21 – 0.95 Dynamo Makhachkala.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Krylya Sovetov win | 40.6% | 38.2% | +2.4% |
| Draw | 31.9% | 30.6% | +1.3% |
| Dynamo Makhachkala win | 27.6% | 31.3% | -3.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.8% | 41.9% | -5.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.4% | 22.8% | -5.4% |
| Both teams to score | 44.5% | 49.3% | -4.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.0% | 28.9% | -0.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Krylya Sovetov 38.8 / Dynamo Makhachkala 33.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.