Baltika vs Spartak Moscow
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-16 · 18:30 CET
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WDWWLThe score model makes a Baltika win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Baltika win — 39.3% vs 24.0% implied (+15.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Baltika 1.23 – 1.03 Spartak Moscow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltika win | 39.3% | 24.0% | +15.3% |
| Draw | 31.2% | 28.3% | +2.9% |
| Spartak Moscow win | 29.4% | 47.7% | -18.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.4% | 45.4% | -5.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.3% | 25.9% | -6.5% |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | 49.9% | -2.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.4% | 30.8% | -1.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Baltika 27 / Spartak Moscow 38.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.