Baltika vs Spartak Moscow
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-16 · 18:30 CET
DWLDL
WDLWWThe score model made a Baltika win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Baltika 1.23 – 1.03 Spartak Moscow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltika win | 39.3% | 25.7% | +13.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.3% | 28.3% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Spartak Moscow win | 29.4% | 46.0% | -16.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.5% | 44.9% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.4% | 24.9% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.1% | 49.9% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.3% | 30.3% | -0.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Baltika 26.9 / Spartak Moscow 38.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.