Krasnodar vs Akhmat Grozny
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-15 · 19:45 CET
WDDDD
WDDWLThe score model made a Krasnodar win the most likely outcome at 70%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Krasnodar 2.21 – 0.72 Akhmat Grozny.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krasnodar win | 70.4% | 61.0% | +9.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.7% | 22.4% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Akhmat Grozny win | 9.9% | 16.6% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 55.1% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.6% | 33.9% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.6% | 52.2% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.3% | 36.8% | +3.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Krasnodar 38.7 / Akhmat Grozny 38.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.