Krasnodar vs Akhmat Grozny
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-15 · 19:45 CET
LWWWW
DDDLDThe score model makes a Krasnodar win the most likely outcome at 70%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Krasnodar win — 70.4% vs 60.6% implied (+9.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Krasnodar 2.20 – 0.72 Akhmat Grozny.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Krasnodar win | 70.4% | 60.6% | +9.8% |
| Draw | 19.7% | 22.6% | -2.8% |
| Akhmat Grozny win | 9.9% | 16.9% | -7.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 55.2% | +0.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.6% | 33.9% | -0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 46.7% | 52.4% | -5.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.3% | 36.5% | +3.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Krasnodar 38.9 / Akhmat Grozny 39 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.