FK Rostov vs Rubin Kazan
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-15 · 17:30 CET
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DWDDDThe score model made an FK Rostov win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FK Rostov 1.13 – 0.93 Rubin Kazan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Rostov win | 38.6% | 43.8% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 33.0% | 31.5% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Rubin Kazan win | 28.4% | 24.6% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.8% | 36.6% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.3% | 18.7% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.2% | 43.8% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.2% | 25.1% | +0.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FK Rostov 38.7 / Rubin Kazan 36.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.