CSKA Moscow vs Fakel Voronezh
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-15 · 15:15 CET
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DDLLDThe score model makes a CSKA Moscow win the most likely outcome at 64%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 38%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 62.4% vs 50.3% implied (+12.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CSKA Moscow 1.65 – 0.54 Fakel Voronezh.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Moscow win | 63.5% | 67.6% | -4.1% |
| Draw | 25.7% | 20.5% | +5.2% |
| Fakel Voronezh win | 10.8% | 11.9% | -1.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.6% | 49.7% | -12.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.0% | 28.6% | -10.6% |
| Both teams to score | 34.9% | 42.9% | -7.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.4% | 33.4% | -6.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CSKA Moscow 38.9 / Fakel Voronezh 19.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.