CSKA Moscow vs Fakel Voronezh
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-15 · 15:15 CET
DWWDW
LLLDLThe score model made a CSKA Moscow win the most likely outcome at 64%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CSKA Moscow 1.65 – 0.54 Fakel Voronezh.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Moscow win | 63.5% | 61.5% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 23.0% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Fakel Voronezh win | 10.8% | 15.5% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.6% | 49.5% | -11.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.0% | 28.3% | -10.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 34.9% | 47.6% | -12.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.4% | 32.8% | -5.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CSKA Moscow 38.7 / Fakel Voronezh 19.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.