Casa Pia vs Santa Clara
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-10-10 · 16:30 CET
LDLWL
DWWDWThe score model made a Santa Clara win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Casa Pia 0.76 – 1.27 Santa Clara.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia win | 22.3% | 24.0% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.3% | 28.5% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Santa Clara win | 48.4% | 47.4% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.2% | 42.8% | -9.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.9% | 22.7% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 38.4% | 47.9% | -9.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.8% | 29.4% | -0.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Casa Pia 28.3 / Santa Clara 26.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.