Moreirense vs Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-10-09 · 19:45 CET
WLLWD
WDLLDThe score model makes a Gil Vicente win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 31.1% vs 28.9% implied (+2.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Moreirense 1.02 – 1.27 Gil Vicente.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense win | 29.7% | 27.8% | +1.9% |
| Draw | 28.6% | 29.5% | -1.0% |
| Gil Vicente win | 41.8% | 42.7% | -0.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.2% | 40.9% | -0.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.9% | 21.7% | -1.8% |
| Both teams to score | 46.2% | 47.2% | -0.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 28.9% | +2.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Moreirense 27 / Gil Vicente 26 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.