Braga vs Sporting CP
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-10-09 · 21:15 CET
WLWDL
WWDDWThe score model made a Sporting CP win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Braga 1.26 – 1.76 Sporting CP.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga win | 27.4% | 31.0% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 29.2% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Sporting CP win | 48.9% | 39.8% | +9.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | 45.4% | +12.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.7% | 25.5% | +10.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | 52.0% | +7.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.1% | 32.4% | +8.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Braga 26 / Sporting CP 26.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.