Alverca vs Santa Clara
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-08-29 · 16:30 CET
DLLDL
WLDWWThe score model makes a Alverca win the most likely outcome at 36%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 35%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 58.8% vs 50.5% implied (+8.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alverca 1.05 – 1.04 Santa Clara.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca win | 35.8% | 29.3% | +6.6% |
| Draw | 28.6% | 29.7% | -1.1% |
| Santa Clara win | 35.6% | 41.0% | -5.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.7% | 42.6% | -7.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.9% | 22.6% | -6.7% |
| Both teams to score | 41.2% | 49.5% | -8.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.5% | 29.4% | -1.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Alverca 25.1 / Santa Clara 25.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.