Alverca vs Santa Clara
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-08-29 · 16:30 CET
LDLWW
WDWWDThe score model made an Alverca win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alverca 1.04 – 1.04 Santa Clara.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca win | 35.8% | 35.2% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.6% | 31.5% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Santa Clara win | 35.7% | 33.3% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.7% | 38.2% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.9% | 19.5% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.2% | 46.3% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.2% | 26.4% | +0.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Alverca 24.8 / Santa Clara 24.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.