Rio Ave vs Sporting CP
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-08-28 · 21:15 CET
WLLDL
WWWDDThe score model made a Sporting CP win the most likely outcome at 73%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:4) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rio Ave 0.82 – 2.44 Sporting CP.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave win | 11.1% | 10.9% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 15.5% | 18.2% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Sporting CP win | 73.5% | 70.9% | +2.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | 57.7% | +5.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.2% | 36.5% | +4.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | 47.7% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.3% | 39.3% | -3.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rio Ave 24.9 / Sporting CP 25 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.