Rio Ave vs Sporting CP
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-08-28 · 21:15 CET
LDLLW
WWDWWThe score model makes an Sporting CP win the most likely outcome at 74%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). No market here diverges from the data by more than 2 points. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rio Ave 0.81 – 2.45 Sporting CP.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave win | 10.7% | 10.9% | -0.2% |
| Draw | 15.7% | 17.0% | -1.4% |
| Sporting CP win | 73.6% | 72.1% | +1.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | 62.7% | +0.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.1% | 41.5% | -0.4% |
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | 51.9% | -1.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.7% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rio Ave 25.2 / Sporting CP 25.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.