Leixoes vs FC Porto B
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-10-10 · 16:30 CET
LWWDL
WLLDWThe score model made a Leixoes win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Leixoes 1.49 – 1.24 FC Porto B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes win | 43.5% | 59.2% | -15.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.5% | 23.6% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| FC Porto B win | 32.0% | 17.2% | +14.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 50.3% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.2% | 29.6% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 49.2% | +5.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.5% | 34.6% | +2.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Leixoes 43.1 / FC Porto B 43.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.