Sporting CP B vs SC Farense
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-30 · 19:00 CET
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WDLDWThe score model made a Sporting CP B win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 27%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sporting CP B 0.96 – 0.84 SC Farense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP B win | 37.3% | 35.4% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.9% | 29.9% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| SC Farense win | 30.7% | 34.6% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 53.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27.1% | 42.9% | -15.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11.0% | 23.4% | -12.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 34.8% | 49.7% | -14.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.2% | 29.7% | -8.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sporting CP B 24.9 / SC Farense 29.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.