Sporting CP B vs SC Farense
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-30 · 19:00 CET
LDWWL
WDWWDThe score model makes a Sporting CP B win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 27%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 72.9% vs 56.5% implied (+16.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sporting CP B 0.97 – 0.84 SC Farense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP B win | 37.5% | 35.8% | +1.8% |
| Draw | 31.9% | 30.2% | +1.8% |
| SC Farense win | 30.6% | 34.1% | -3.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 53.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27.1% | 43.5% | -16.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11.0% | 23.7% | -12.8% |
| Both teams to score | 34.8% | 50.1% | -15.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.3% | 29.8% | -8.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sporting CP B 25.1 / SC Farense 29.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.