Felgueiras vs Chaves
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-30 · 19:00 CET
DDWLL
LDLWLThe score model made a Felgueiras win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Felgueiras 1.16 – 1.02 Chaves.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felgueiras win | 39.3% | 41.4% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.4% | 29.4% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Chaves win | 32.2% | 29.2% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.0% | 44.1% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.5% | 24.1% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.3% | 50.0% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.9% | 30.0% | -7.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Felgueiras 35.9 / Chaves 35.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.