FC Porto B vs Penafiel
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-30 · 19:00 CET
LWLLD
DWWWWThe score model made an FC Porto B win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Porto B 1.27 – 1.17 Penafiel.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto B win | 39.1% | 30.6% | +8.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.6% | 28.7% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Penafiel win | 34.3% | 40.7% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 45.0% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.9% | 25.3% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 50.7% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 30.7% | +1.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Porto B 43.9 / Penafiel 43.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.