FC Porto B vs Penafiel
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-30 · 19:00 CET
WWLLW
WLLDWThe score model makes a FC Porto B win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: FC Porto B win — 39.3% vs 31.9% implied (+7.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Porto B 1.27 – 1.16 Penafiel.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto B win | 39.3% | 31.9% | +7.4% |
| Draw | 26.6% | 28.6% | -2.0% |
| Penafiel win | 34.1% | 39.5% | -5.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.9% | 45.2% | -1.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.8% | 25.5% | -2.7% |
| Both teams to score | 49.0% | 50.9% | -1.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 31.0% | +1.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Porto B 44.4 / Penafiel 44.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.