Torreense vs Vizela
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-29 · 21:30 CET
DLLDD
WLWLDThe score model makes a Torreense win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 78.9% vs 69.1% implied (+9.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Torreense 1.24 – 1.02 Vizela.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torreense win | 41.8% | 47.0% | -5.2% |
| Draw | 27.6% | 28.4% | -0.8% |
| Vizela win | 30.6% | 24.6% | +6.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.3% | 45.1% | -5.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.2% | 25.5% | -6.3% |
| Both teams to score | 45.0% | 50.1% | -5.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.1% | 30.9% | -9.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Torreense 46.1 / Vizela 36.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.