Torreense vs Vizela
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-29 · 21:30 CET
DDLWD
LDWWDThe score model made a Torreense win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Torreense 1.25 – 1.02 Vizela.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torreense win | 41.9% | 46.8% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 28.4% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Vizela win | 30.6% | 24.8% | +5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.5% | 45.5% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.4% | 25.6% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.1% | 50.1% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.2% | 30.7% | -9.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Torreense 45.6 / Vizela 35.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.