Portimonense vs Leixoes
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-29 · 12:00 CET
DWWWD
WWLWLThe score model makes a Portimonense win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Portimonense win — 41.0% vs 35.7% implied (+5.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Portimonense 1.43 – 1.28 Leixoes.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 41.0% | 35.7% | +5.4% |
| Draw | 25.0% | 28.8% | -3.9% |
| Leixoes win | 34.0% | 35.5% | -1.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 46.2% | +4.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 25.9% | +2.8% |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 51.8% | +2.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 31.5% | -0.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Portimonense 36.3 / Leixoes 44.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.