Portimonense vs Leixoes
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-29 · 12:00 CET
WDLLL
WLWWDThe score model made a Portimonense win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Portimonense 1.44 – 1.27 Leixoes.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 41.2% | 32.7% | +8.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 28.8% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Leixoes win | 33.9% | 38.5% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 46.9% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.8% | 27.0% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 52.8% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 32.6% | -1.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Portimonense 35.9 / Leixoes 43.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.