Leiria vs Tondela
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-28 · 19:00 CET
LWWWD
LLLWWThe score model made a Leiria win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Leiria 1.43 – 1.36 Tondela.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiria win | 39.4% | 41.8% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 28.6% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Tondela win | 36.0% | 29.6% | +6.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 46.7% | +6.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.7% | 26.6% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | 52.2% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.9% | 32.1% | +2.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Leiria 41.6 / Tondela 22 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.