Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-10-12 · 18:00 CET
DWDLL
DLLLDThe score model makes a Radomiak Radom win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Radomiak Radom win — 43.5% vs 38.6% implied (+5.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Radomiak Radom 1.71 – 1.41 Motor Lublin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Radomiak Radom win | 43.5% | 38.6% | +5.0% |
| Draw | 26.1% | 26.7% | -0.6% |
| Motor Lublin win | 30.3% | 34.7% | -4.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.3% | 61.4% | -1.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.0% | 40.6% | -2.7% |
| Both teams to score | 63.2% | 64.0% | -0.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.0% | 42.0% | +2.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Radomiak Radom 45.2 / Motor Lublin 38.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.