Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-10-10 · 17:30 CET
LLWLD
WWWWDThe score model made a Lech Poznan win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 1:4 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Slask Wroclaw 1.21 – 1.67 Lech Poznan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slask Wroclaw win | 26.3% | 19.3% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.0% | 21.8% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Lech Poznan win | 46.7% | 58.9% | -12.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 63.0% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.6% | 42.6% | -10.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | 60.3% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.4% | 43.4% | -6.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Slask Wroclaw 25 / Lech Poznan 44.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.