Cracovia vs Zaglebie
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-10-10 · 14:45 CET
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DWWLLThe score model made a Cracovia win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 3:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cracovia 1.28 – 1.03 Zaglebie.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cracovia win | 40.4% | 49.2% | -8.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.3% | 26.9% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Zaglebie win | 28.3% | 23.9% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.5% | 50.3% | -9.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.2% | 29.4% | -9.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | 53.5% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.7% | 34.5% | -11.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cracovia 44.8 / Zaglebie 44.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.