Rakow vs GKS Katowice
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-10-09 · 20:30 CET
LWLWW
WLLWLThe score model made a Rakow win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 1:4 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rakow 1.68 – 1.27 GKS Katowice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rakow win | 45.8% | 46.0% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 24.8% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| GKS Katowice win | 27.5% | 29.2% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.6% | 63.0% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.2% | 42.4% | -8.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 64.3% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.3% | 42.8% | -5.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rakow 45.2 / GKS Katowice 37.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Rakow vs GKS Katowice in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.