Rakow vs GKS Katowice
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-10-09 · 20:30 CET
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WWLLWThe score model makes a Rakow win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 65.8% vs 58.8% implied (+7.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rakow 1.68 – 1.27 GKS Katowice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rakow win | 45.8% | 43.2% | +2.6% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 24.8% | +1.9% |
| GKS Katowice win | 27.5% | 32.0% | -4.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.6% | 61.6% | -5.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.2% | 41.2% | -7.0% |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 63.7% | -3.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.3% | 42.0% | -4.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rakow 45.5 / GKS Katowice 37.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.