Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-09-03 · 20:30 CET
WWWLW
WLWLLThe score model made a Lech Poznan win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lech Poznan 1.87 – 1.25 Jagiellonia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan win | 50.6% | 57.3% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 22.0% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Jagiellonia win | 24.4% | 20.7% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.2% | 66.5% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.9% | 45.9% | -8.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.5% | 64.0% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.8% | 45.6% | +2.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lech Poznan 43.6 / Jagiellonia 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.