Zaglebie vs Pogon Szczecin
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-08-29 · 20:15 CET
DDWWL
DDDWWThe score model made a Zaglebie win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zaglebie 1.25 – 1.19 Pogon Szczecin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaglebie win | 36.4% | 36.8% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.2% | 28.3% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Pogon Szczecin win | 33.4% | 35.0% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.9% | 49.3% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.8% | 29.0% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 54.9% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.4% | 33.9% | -1.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zaglebie 43.9 / Pogon Szczecin 43.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.