Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-08-29 · 14:45 CET
DLLLD
DWWWLThe score model made a Motor Lublin win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Motor Lublin 1.57 – 1.24 Piast Gliwice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motor Lublin win | 43.6% | 40.9% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 26.6% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Piast Gliwice win | 29.0% | 32.5% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | 56.3% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.0% | 35.3% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | 59.7% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.8% | 38.3% | -3.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Motor Lublin 37.2 / Piast Gliwice 45.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.