Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-08-28 · 18:00 CET
LLDWW
WDWLWThe score model made a draw the most likely outcome at 34%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 31%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wisla Plock 0.99 – 0.95 Korona Kielce.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisla Plock win | 33.9% | 34.4% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 34.2% | 28.9% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Korona Kielce win | 31.9% | 36.7% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.7% | 45.5% | -14.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.2% | 25.6% | -12.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 39.9% | 51.3% | -11.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.2% | 31.6% | -8.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wisla Plock 27.7 / Korona Kielce 43.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.